SpaceX Orbital AI Computing to Undercut Nvidia Ground Solutions by 2031, Morgan Stanley Projects

Morgan Stanley projects that SpaceX's orbital computing costs will drop to $6.5 per watt per year by 2031, undercutting Nvidia Blackwell-based ground data centers at $6.8. SpaceX has designed its first AI-dedicated satellite, "AI1," which supports up to 150kW peak compute load, and has applied to the FCC to launch up to 1 million satellites. This shift addresses the severe energy and cooling constraints facing terrestrial AI data centers by utilizing space-based solar power and vacuum radiative cooling. If realized, orbital computing could bypass Earth's power grid limitations and drastically lower the long-term operational costs of massive AI infrastructure. The AI1 satellites will feature liquid radiators, micrometeorite shielding, and deployable solar arrays, manufactured at SpaceX's Gigasat facility in Texas. By 2040, orbital computing costs could fall further to $1.7 per watt per year, making a 1GW orbital data center cost just $1.7 billion annually to operate.